In the recent months, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek have distinguished themselves as the premier players on the WTA Tour. Their exceptional performances have been particularly evident in Indian Wells, where both women have advanced into the tournament’s second week with impressive displays. However, irrespective of the outcome of the rest of the tournament, it’s Sabalenka, the current world No.1, who seems poised to emerge as the ultimate victor when it comes to WTA rankings.
Before the commencement of Indian Wells, Sabalenka already enjoyed a considerable lead over Swiatek, her closest competitor and the world No. 2. A lead that amounts to over 1,000 points; Sabalenka currently holds 9,076 points, while Swiatek is at 7,985. Swiatek, a former world No.1, had managed to close the rankings gap at the Australian Open. However, her early exits in Doha and Dubai led to her losing ground once more. Now, there’s a real possibility that the Polish player could find herself further adrift of Sabalenka when the new rankings come out next week.
A year ago, Sabalenka suffered an unexpected early exit in Indian Wells, going out to Emma Navarro in the fourth round. However, this year, the top seed has already matched her previous performance, thanks to straight-sets victories over McCartney Kessler and Lucia Bronzetti. This means she has successfully defended her 120 points from 2024, ensuring that she will have at least 9,076 points by the coming Monday. The three-time Grand Slam champion, however, could increase her points tally further.
After a challenging Middle East tour, Sabalenka appears to have regained her top form and now has the opportunity to extend her lead over Swiatek. Hailed as the hot favourite to defeat ‘lucky loser’ Sonay Kartal in the fourth round, she also has a good chance against either Jasmine Paolini, the sixth seed, or 24th seed Liudmilla Samsonova in the quarterfinals. A quarterfinal run would increase Sabalenka’s points to 9,171, while a semi-final run would take her to 9,346.
Projected to face third-seed Coco Gauff in the semi-final, and potentially Swiatek in the final, the road ahead for Sabalenka isn’t easy. However, if she does make it to the final, she would amass 9,606 points. If she were to claim her first desert title, she would have a massive 9,956 points. From a rankings perspective, this tournament presents a win-win situation for Sabalenka – she has nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Swiatek, on the other hand, is under immense pressure. As the defending champion of Indian Wells, she has a whopping 1,000 points to defend. She can’t add to her current points total of 7,985 unless she defends her title successfully and Sabalenka goes out in the fourth round. If Swiatek were to lose in the fourth round and Sabalenka clinches the title, the gap between them would widen to over 2,800 points. A defeat to Karolina Muchova in the fourth round would see Swiatek shed an enormous 880 ranking points, reducing her total to 7,105. A quarter-final, semi-final, or final exit would see her points drop to 7,200, 7,375, and 7,635, respectively.
Indian Wells is a pivotal tournament for Swiatek if she hopes to keep up with Sabalenka and reclaim her No.1 ranking later in the season. With Indian Wells and the Miami Open about to conclude, Swiatek faces a challenging clay-court swing with three significant titles to defend. After defending semi-final points in Stuttgart, she has 1,000 points to defend in both Madrid and Rome, along with 2,000 points from her fourth French Open triumph last spring. Sabalenka, meanwhile, has 650 finalist points to defend in Madrid and Rome, and quarter-final points in Stuttgart and Roland Garros.
The tables will turn this summer, with Sabalenka set to defend a significant amount of points during the US hard-court swing. However, to stand a chance of returning to No. 1 in the upcoming months, Swiatek undoubtedly needs to defend her Indian Wells title.