For years, teams, media, and fans have been using ERA as a run-prevention tool that gives them an idea of how good a pitcher is at preventing runs on average.
The problem with ERA is that it doesn’t depend entirely on the pitcher: important external factors, such as defense, come into play.
What if the pitcher did a good job at generating weak contact but his defense didn’t do a good job and allowed too many baserunners?
That’s why FIP is around.
ERA just analyzes how many earned runs a pitcher gives up, on average, per nine innings.
FIP, or Fielding Independent Pitching, focuses only on the events a hurler has the most control over which are strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs.
It doesn’t even consider results on balls in play.
When it comes to FIP, Atlanta Braves star Spencer Strider is king.
He limits walks, he doesn’t allow that many home runs and, above all things, he racks up strikeouts like no other starter in the league.
That’s why he is projected to have the best FIP among starters this year, per Steamer via Codify.
Best projected 2024 FIP
(starting pitchers, Steamer):Spencer Strider, 3.09
Tyler Glasnow, 3.35
Tarik Skubal, 3.36
Logan Webb, 3.38
Framber Valdez, 3.46
Kevin Gausman, 3.50
Pablo López, 3.50
Alex Cobb, 3.62
Max Fried, 3.63
Zach Eflin, 3.64
Zack Wheeler, 3.67
George Kirby, 3.68…— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) January 12, 2024
Strider’s ERA is often higher than his FIP, which indicates that he often deserves better results than the ones he has gotten.
And he has gotten incredible results if you consider his 3.37 career ERA.
However, his 2.48 career FIP is absolutely elite and unmatched, precisely because he can strike out 281 hitters like he did in 2023.
The gap between Strider’s projected 3.09 FIP and the next-best starter, Tyler Glasnow (3.35), is considerable.
He might not always have the lowest ERA, but when it comes to FIP, your money is safe with Strider.
The post Spencer Strider Dominates Early 2024 Projection appeared first on The Cold Wire.