Donald Trump’s recent remarks about taking control of Greenland — either through purchase or force — might grab headlines, but experts say the idea is a costly fantasy that could backfire spectacularly. Despite the Arctic island’s allure as a geopolitical hotspot and mineral treasure trove, Trump may be chasing an expensive mirage.
Greenland: A Strategic Gem or a Fiscal Sinkhole?
With its vast Arctic expanse and strategic military location, Greenland appears to be a dream acquisition. But the reality is far more complex. The self-governing territory, home to just 56,000 people, is heavily reliant on Denmark, which foots nearly half of Greenland’s budget — a yearly bill ranging from $750 million to $1 billion.
“Donald Trump doesn’t like bad deals, right?” quipped Jon Rahbek-Clemmensen, a professor at the Royal Danish Defence College. “Greenland is a very expensive midsize municipality.”
The U.S. Already Holds All the Cards
Trump’s ambitions overlook one critical fact: the U.S. is already getting everything it wants from Greenland.
- Strategic Military Presence: The Pituffik Space Base (formerly Thule Air Base) provides essential surveillance and early warning capabilities, reinforcing U.S. dominance in the Arctic.
- Mineral Access Without Ownership: Greenland’s government actively courts American investors for sustainable mining projects, ensuring access to valuable rare earth minerals without the need for sovereignty.
- Blocking Chinese Influence: At Washington’s urging, Denmark has already blocked Chinese state-owned companies from critical infrastructure projects, such as airports, on the island.
“The U.S. is already getting what it wants. And it’s cheap,” Rahbek-Clemmensen added.
The Mirage of Greenland’s Mineral Wealth
While Greenland’s melting ice caps have revealed deposits of rare earth minerals, copper, silver, and other valuable resources, the reality is less promising. Most projects require massive investment, years of development, and come with significant environmental concerns.
The Kuannersuit mine, a major rare earth site, has been mired in controversy due to its uranium content. Greenland’s government blocked its exploitation, prompting an $11 billion lawsuit from the license-holding company.
Premier Múte Egede faces a precarious balancing act. While mining could provide the financial independence Greenland needs to break free from Denmark, environmental concerns weigh heavily on voters’ minds. Egede has hinted at an upcoming referendum on independence, adding to the uncertainty.
Frederiksen’s Calculated Diplomacy
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has taken a savvy approach to Trump’s remarks. By dismissing his previous bid to buy Greenland as “absurd” but refraining from outright condemnation this time, Frederiksen has left the door open for enhanced U.S.-Danish-Greenlandic cooperation in the Arctic.
“When the storm has passed, it may well be that the U.S. and Greenland can negotiate a new form of cooperation,” said Danish journalist Ole Ellekrog.
A Deal Trump Doesn’t Need
Trump’s obsession with Greenland might stem from its growing importance in global geopolitics, but experts agree that the U.S. is already winning in the Arctic without taking on the financial and political burdens of ownership. Attempting to annex Greenland, either economically or militarily, would risk alienating allies, inflaming local resentment, and plunging Washington into a costly venture with little return.
The Arctic chessboard is already stacked in America’s favor — but Trump’s gambit could flip the board entirely.