As Donald Trump prepares to retake the reins of U.S. leadership, the world is witnessing a seismic shift in transatlantic relations. According to Mark Leonard, Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), the current crisis in U.S.-Europe relations rivals the infamous Suez debacle — but with an unpredictably modern twist. At the heart of the turmoil lies a billionaire-turned-political operative, controversial rhetoric on territorial sovereignty, and an incoming administration poised to overturn the foundations of the global order.
Trump’s Disruptive Agenda
Trump’s rhetoric has left little doubt about his intentions. From promising to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours to questioning the sanctity of territorial borders, the president-elect has made clear his willingness to rewrite the rules. His comments about Greenland and the Panama Canal highlight a new era of “transactional geopolitics,” one that leaves Europe scrambling for a coherent response.
But while Europeans may be alarmed, Trump’s approach is resonating elsewhere. A groundbreaking ECFR survey of over 28,000 people across 24 countries reveals a stark divide: in regions like India, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and China, Trump’s policies are seen as a breath of fresh air. Three in five respondents believe his pledge to resolve the Ukraine conflict, while half think he could achieve peace in the Middle East.
The Global Shift Toward Pragmatism
Europe’s apprehension toward Trump stems from his unapologetic “America First” agenda, a far cry from the collaborative framework that has underpinned transatlantic ties for decades. Yet, many middle powers — including Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and South Africa — welcome this change. They see the U.S. not as a moral arbiter but as a pragmatic actor in a more multipolar world order.
Ironically, the traits that alarm Europe—Trump’s disdain for global leadership and preference for bilateral deals—are precisely what make him appealing to other regions. These countries no longer want to be lectured by Western powers. Instead, they prefer transactional relationships that allow them to pursue their interests without interference.
Europe’s Diminished Role?
The ECFR survey also revealed a sobering reality: Europeans may have underestimated their relevance on the world stage. While the EU often views itself as a moral compass and a bulwark against authoritarianism, much of the world sees it differently. Surprisingly, solid majorities outside Europe still perceive the EU as a potential superpower capable of standing alongside the U.S. and China. However, Europe’s challenge lies in defining and unifying its interests to wield this power effectively.
The Path Forward
To navigate this Trumpian era, Europe must confront its internal divisions. Whether fending off Beijing’s economic strategies, Moscow’s political meddling, or Washington’s unpredictability, unity is key. Rather than posing as a counterbalance to Trump, Europe must focus on securing its interests through pragmatic, cohesive strategies.
The message from the world is clear: the EU’s potential is immense, but its influence will depend on its ability to act decisively and without internal discord.