Just hours before Donald Trump’s inauguration, a senior European Union official issued a stark warning: Europe cannot meet the ambitious defense spending targets Trump has pushed for if he ignites a trade war with the bloc.
Stéphane Séjourné, the European Commission’s industry chief, agreed that boosting defense budgets is necessary but cautioned that any move by Trump to impose tariffs on European goods would cripple national budgets and make increased military spending impossible.
“We cannot do this with a trade war on our doorstep, and national budgets everywhere are not capable of increasing defense budgets to more than 3 percent,” Séjourné told France Inter.
Trump’s defense demands: From 2% to 5%?
Throughout his political career, Trump has repeatedly criticized European NATO allies for failing to contribute their fair share to defense spending. NATO currently mandates that member states allocate at least 2% of their GDP to defense—a target many European countries have struggled to meet.
However, Trump has reportedly floated a new, far more aggressive figure: 5% of GDP. While NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte hinted at an increase to above 3% during an upcoming summit in The Hague, Trump’s demands are seen as unrealistic by major NATO players like Germany and Italy.
Countries like Poland and Lithuania, which already surpass the 2% threshold, have expressed support for higher targets, but the idea faces stiff opposition from Western Europe, especially in the face of potential U.S.-EU trade tensions.
Trump’s protectionist agenda looms large
Trump’s protectionist rhetoric has exacerbated European concerns. The president-elect has proposed universal tariffs on imports and has openly criticized the EU for its trade policies, particularly targeting Germany’s dominance in the automobile industry.
“He is obsessed with the number of German cars on the streets of Manhattan,” said one insider familiar with Trump’s views.
Trump has also vented frustration at Europe’s reluctance to buy American agricultural products, threatening to retaliate with tariffs on European goods.
Séjourné underscored the impact of such measures, saying, “A trade war would not only strain EU economies but also make it politically and financially impossible to meet Trump’s defense spending goals.”
Europe’s response: Balancing priorities
The debate over NATO spending is already fraught in Europe, where defense budgets compete with social programs and climate initiatives. Countries like Germany, long criticized by Trump for underfunding defense, have resisted calls to drastically increase military spending, arguing that economic stability and trade partnerships are equally vital to security.
Even as NATO allies prepare to discuss revised spending targets, the looming specter of a trade war with the U.S. could overshadow the talks.
An uphill battle for unity
The tension between Trump’s demands and Europe’s realities reflects a broader challenge in transatlantic relations. As the new U.S. administration prepares to take office, EU leaders are bracing for a combative trade policy that could undermine the very alliance Trump claims to want to strengthen.
With the NATO summit just months away, the question remains: Can Europe navigate Trump’s aggressive stance without fracturing under the weight of economic and political pressure?