On the first day of 2025, Russian gas flows through Ukraine ceased, marking a “historic” shift celebrated by Kyiv as a blow to Moscow’s war effort. But for Moldova, this abrupt halt threatens a chilling crisis, especially in the breakaway region of Transnistria, where homes are now cold, and fears of a deepening humanitarian disaster loom large.
Transnistria Freezes: A Lifeline Severed
In the separatist region of Transnistria, which has relied on free Russian gas for decades, residents woke to frigid temperatures and failing heating systems. Dmitry, a resident in the enclave, described the grim reality:
“The hot water was on until about 2 a.m., but now it’s off. The radiators are barely warm,” he said. “We don’t know what frost January will bring.”
With gas pressure dwindling and reserves drying up, local authorities are scrambling. “Heating points” are being set up, and families are urged to huddle in one room for warmth, using blankets to seal windows and doors. Hospitals and critical infrastructure are prioritized, leaving homes in the cold.
Electricity on Borrowed Time
For now, Transnistria’s main power plant in Kurchugan is running on coal, but supplies are expected to last only 50 days. This creates a ripple effect for Moldova, which relies on the plant for 80% of its electricity.
The government in Chisinau says it has secured gas supplies to last until spring and plans to import electricity from Europe. But with soaring costs, the country is bracing for power cuts, and businesses and citizens have been urged to cut consumption.
A Crisis with Political Undertones
The crisis extends beyond energy shortages, with profound economic and political implications. Analysts and officials accuse Russia of using the situation to destabilize Moldova ahead of the 2025 parliamentary elections.
“This isn’t just an energy crisis; it’s a security crisis,” said Olga Rosca, a foreign policy adviser to Moldova’s president. “Russia is creating conditions for pro-Russian forces to return to power.”
Moscow has accused Chisinau of owing $700 million in unpaid gas bills. However, Moldova disputes this, citing an independent audit that found the debt to be only $9 million, most of which has been repaid.
Tensions with the Kremlin
Moldova’s pivot towards the European Union has further strained its relationship with Russia. Since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, Moldovan President Maia Sandu has steered the country firmly toward the West, a stance that has drawn retaliation from the Kremlin.
Russian propaganda is already at work. Before Sandu’s inauguration, Russia’s SVR intelligence agency accused her of plotting to retake Transnistria by force—a baseless claim aimed at painting her as unstable.
A Winter of Discontent
As temperatures drop and resources dwindle, the humanitarian toll is mounting. In Transnistria, authorities are refusing external aid, even turning down generators, while pushing a narrative that Chisinau is to blame for the region’s suffering.
“The prices here would shoot up, including for heating and food,” said Dmitry from Bendery. “People are barely clinging on as it is.”
The pressure on President Sandu and her pro-European government is immense. Rising costs and growing public frustration could pave the way for a political shift, potentially bringing pro-Russian parties to power.
Russia’s Strategic Play
Observers believe Moscow’s aim is clear: destabilize Moldova economically and politically to derail its EU ambitions.
“Electricity prices have risen six times in three years, and people are angry,” said Jakub Pieńkowski of the Polish Institute of International Affairs. “Russia can wait for elections, and then parties that are not pro-EU will likely win.”
The Clock is Ticking
As Moldova grapples with freezing homes, blackouts, and political unrest, the stakes are higher than ever. For a country torn between East and West, this winter may define its future.