Detroit Tigers Mark a New Era with Colt Keith’s Transition to First Base
The Detroit Tigers are gearing up for a significant change this season with Colt Keith, their rising star, transitioning to first base. This move comes on the heels of the team signing Gleyber Torres to man second base, leading to the decision to place Keith at first base, a position he has not played professionally before, after spending most of his career at the hot corner and second base in the minors and during his first year in the majors.
At 23 years old and already securing a long-term extension, Keith’s shift to first base represents a calculated risk for the Tigers. While the move could potentially become permanent if successful, it carries inherent uncertainties. One key area that needs improvement for Keith to solidify his role is his power hitting capabilities.
Unlocking Keith’s Power Potential
In the 2024 season, Keith’s power numbers fell short of expectations, hitting only 13 home runs in 516 at-bats. This was a stark contrast to his impressive 2023 campaign in the minors, where he launched 27 homers, including 13 at the Triple-A level in just 261 at-bats. To harness his full power potential at the major league level, Keith needs to make adjustments at the plate.
The Path to Power
Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press highlighted a crucial adjustment that could propel Keith to a breakout sophomore season in 2025. Petzold emphasized that Keith has the capability to hit over 20 home runs for the Tigers if he maintains an average exit velocity of 89 mph. This target exit velocity represents a tangible goal for Keith to strive for in enhancing his power hitting.
Challenges Ahead
While Keith showcased an average exit velocity of 88.7 mph in his Triple-A games, his performance in the majors last season fell slightly short at 87.8 mph, placing him in the 23rd percentile among all major league players according to Baseball Savant. Advanced statistics painted a mixed picture of Keith’s power potential, with his hard-hit rate and barrel rate ranking in the lower percentiles.
Despite these challenges, Keith demonstrated a solid ability to square up the baseball, ranking in the 71st percentile for this metric. Additionally, his expected slugging percentage and bat speed positioned him in the mid-range across the league. With more experience and adaptation to major league pitching, Keith stands a chance to elevate his exit velocity and deliver the power hitting expected from a starting first baseman.
A Glimpse into the Future
While Keith may not reach the home run heights of the league’s premier sluggers, his well-rounded offensive approach, characterized by a high batting average and low strikeout rate, sets him apart. By incorporating power into his game, Keith could solidify his place as the Tigers’ first baseman of the future, offering a potent offensive threat alongside his existing strengths at the plate.
