Aryna Sabalenka’s 2025 Qatar Open campaign ended before it even started. The three-time Grand Slam champion was stunned in the opening round by Ekaterina Alexandrova, losing in a nail-biting deciding set tiebreak.
It was Alexandrova’s fourth career win over Sabalenka, but the first since the Belarusian became a Grand Slam champion. While Sabalenka did not openly admit it, the lingering effects of her Australian Open final loss to Madison Keys—a defeat so crushing it led her to smash her racket in frustration—may still be weighing on her.
But despite this early exit, Sabalenka’s No. 1 ranking remains secure—at least for now.
Why Sabalenka’s Ranking Is Safe—for Now
Some fans wondered whether an early Doha exit would open the door for Iga Swiatek to reclaim the No. 1 ranking. That won’t happen this week.
Here’s why:
✅ Sabalenka skipped the 2024 Qatar Open, meaning she wasn’t defending any ranking points. Her total remains at 8,956 points.
✅ Swiatek is the three-time defending champion in Doha, meaning she can’t add to her points total unless she wins the tournament again.
✅ If Swiatek wins the Qatar Open, she’ll stay at 8,770 points—still trailing Sabalenka.
However, this safety net won’t last forever.
The Bigger Problem for Sabalenka: A Missed Opportunity
Sabalenka’s early exit in Qatar may not immediately cost her the top spot, but it could come back to haunt her later this season.
👀 Swiatek is defending a mountain of points from her dominant early 2024 run, which included titles at:
🏆 Indian Wells Open
🏆 Madrid Open
🏆 Italian Open
🏆 French Open
Sabalenka had a golden opportunity to build a bigger ranking cushion before Swiatek starts defending her huge point totals. Instead, she missed her chance, leaving the door wide open for Swiatek to strike.
Can Swiatek Take Back No. 1 Soon? Dubai Is Key
While Swiatek can’t pass Sabalenka this week, that could change as soon as next week’s Dubai Championships.
- Swiatek made the semifinals in Dubai last year, while Sabalenka crashed out in the Round of 32 to Donna Vekic.
- If Swiatek wins in Qatar, she would be in prime position to take over No. 1 with a strong showing in Dubai.
- Dubai’s fast courts don’t suit Swiatek as well as Doha’s slower surface, but she was still runner-up there in 2023.
If Swiatek captures both Doha and Dubai, Sabalenka’s reign at the top could be over within a week.
Final Verdict: Is Sabalenka’s No. 1 Spot in Jeopardy?
🔴 Short-term: Sabalenka is safe. Swiatek’s Doha title defense prevents her from gaining ground this week.
🔵 Long-term: Sabalenka is vulnerable. Dubai could be the turning point, and Swiatek has plenty of opportunities to take over in the coming months.
Sabalenka had a chance to create breathing room at the top but failed to capitalize. Now, Swiatek controls her own destiny. If she goes on another dominant run, the No. 1 ranking could change hands before the clay season even begins.
🔥 Who do you think will finish the season as World No. 1—Sabalenka or Swiatek?
