Daria Kasatkina, Russian tennis sensation, expressed her philosophy on confidence and results after her triumphant return to the winners’ circle at Melbourne in 2021. Currently, she is grappling to rediscover her peak form in the 2025 season. Kasatkina’s tournament journey, so far, has been somewhat satisfactory. Despite a lackluster performance in her most recent match, the 27-year-old has flown to the South Side with hopes of a revival. As a seeded player in the Miami Open, she has an opening round bye, setting the stage for a Round of 64 showdown against Hailey Baptiste on Friday, March 21. Now, let’s delve into the specifics of this much-anticipated match-up.
Kasatkina’s entry into the Miami Open follows a grueling second-round defeat in Indian Wells, despite a hard-fought victory over Sofia Kenin in the inaugural game. Her endeavours were thwarted when Luidmila Samsonova rallied to overthrow her from a one-set lead in the second round. Kasatkina ranks as No. 12 seed in South Beach.
Baptiste, on the other hand, made her way to Miami after qualifying for the main draw at Indian Wells Masters. She progressed to the Round of 64, but her journey halted right there, thanks to her countrywoman Danielle Collins. Baptiste faced Olga Danilovic in the Miami Masters’ opener where she leveled the match with a tiebreaker win in the second set and finally clinched the contest by losing merely one game in the third set. This victory sets her up for a face-off against Kasatkina.
The tour has witnessed Kasatkina and Baptiste lock horns only once before, in Seoul, a match that concluded in favor of the Russian, placing her at a 1-0 lead in their head-to-head record. Their Round of 64 clash in Miami will mark their second encounter on the WTA.
The 2025 season has seen Kasatkina produce only modest results. She kick-started her campaign on the Australian hard court swing, making it to the quarterfinals in Adelaide after a second-round exit at the Brisbane International. She progressed to the Australian Open’s fourth round but was knocked out by American Emma Navarro. The Middle East leg of the tour didn’t fare well for her either.
Sandwiched between first-round exits in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, her third-round stint in Doha didn’t exactly boost her agenda, a trend that continued in Indian Wells. Kasatkina has struggled in Masters 1000 events since last year, reaching the third round only twice since the commencement of the 2024 season. This necessitates greater caution from her, especially considering four out of her seven losses this season have been to American players, and Baptiste is gradually gaining momentum.
Baptiste, the American star, bagged her first-ever top 50 victory this season against Danilovic, marking her first win in Miami – she had a 0-4 event record prior to this year. The 23-year-old began her 2025 season in Auckland, where she reached the quarterfinals against Naomi Osaka. Despite an early exit at the Melbourne Slam, she managed to reach the Round of 16 in Singapore, followed by qualifying round exits in Abu Dhabi and Qatar.
Baptiste now has her sights set on reaching the third round of a WTA 1000 tournament for the second time in her career. However, with a 2-10 record against top 20 players, she might face stiff competition from Kasatkina. Despite Kasatkina being the favored victor, she will need to be on guard against her younger opponent. If she can sustain her rhythm, Kasatkina should comfortably move forward in the Miami Open’s second round.
