Tommy Paul, the American tennis star, is visibly relishing his time at Indian Wells, as he recently ensured his place in the Round of 16 at the 2025 BNP Paribas Open. His next challenge: a face-off with two-time finalist, Daniil Medvedev. Last year, Paul had a chance to reach the tournament final for the first time in his career, but was bested by Medvedev in the semi-finals. Now, the question is whether he can turn the tables this time and deliver a stellar performance against the former World number one.
Medvedev’s best performance this season was at the Open 13 where he made it to the semi-finals. Though he performed commendably in the Middle East swing, a title eluded him. Can he turn his fortunes around in what’s often referred to as the Tennis Paradise? Only time will tell. He enters this match on a rather unexpected note—his Round of 32 opponent, Alex Michelsen, was forced to withdraw due to illness barely 10 minutes into their match.
On the flip side, Tommy Paul is riding high on the back of his recent 6-3,7-5 victory over Cameron Norrie from Great Britain in the previous round. Paul’s form this year has been nothing short of impressive, having reached the semi-finals in Adelaide and Dallas. It remains to be seen how far he can extend this run in the current tournament.
When it comes to previous encounters, Medvedev and Paul have locked horns four times in their careers. Medvedev currently leads the head-to-head record, having beaten Paul three out of four times. Notably, Medvedev was full of praise for Paul’s exceptional performance in their last encounter at Indian Wells.
“Tommy showed everyone how to beat me, how to play on the lines, full power. He was playing pretty unbelievably, and I didn’t know what to do, so the only thing I could do is try to continue to search for solutions,” Medvedev admitted. The question now is whether Paul can pose such a challenge to Medvedev once again.
While Tommy Paul’s current form is impressive, Daniil Medvedev’s record at the BNP Paribas Open is something to behold. After narrowly missing out on the title in the previous two editions, he is eager to seize the opportunity this time around. However, with the support of the home crowd, Paul could turn the tide at critical points in this thrilling contest.
At present, Medvedev’s win-loss record this season stands at 10-6, while Paul’s is slightly better at 12-5. Considering their recent form, this match promises to be a nail-biter that could potentially stretch to three sets. And as history suggests, the longer the match, the stronger Medvedev becomes.
In terms of playing style, Paul boasts a solid attacking forehand and impressive footwork along the baseline. He’s also adept at net play and has a formidable volley in his repertoire. Alongside this, he has a powerful serve with a good amount of topspin.
Medvedev, on the other hand, is more of a counterpuncher with a potent first serve. His long, flat groundstrokes and persistent baseline rallies often exhaust his opponents. His consistency is his biggest strength. Despite a weaker forehand, his backhand is among the best on the Tour. His serving skills are also noteworthy, having already hit 118 aces this season.
Taking all these factors into account, it seems Medvedev holds the upper hand. The prediction is that the Russian will triumph in a hard-fought three-setter, advancing to the next round.
