As he steps back onto the American hard courts, Novak Djokovic, former world No 1, is presented with a golden chance to make a significant leap in the ATP rankings. Although he has stated his motivation is no longer rooted in climbing the ATP ladder, the importance of the coming weeks is not lost on him.
Djokovic’s career has entered its twilight phase, prompting him to adopt a limited tournament schedule. His aim is to strike a delicate balance between obtaining sufficient match practice and steering clear of injuries. However, this approach failed him at the inaugural Grand Slam of 2025, where a hamstring issue forced him to withdraw from his semi-final clash with Alexander Zverev at the Australian Open.
Now, Djokovic is back to peak fitness and ready to seize the opportunity that the first ATP Masters 1000 tournament of the season presents. The 24-time Grand Slam victor is defending a mere 50 points, having been defeated by Luca Nardi in his second match at Indian Wells last year. If he secures the title in California for the sixth time, he will add a whopping 950 points to his score.
Last year, Djokovic chose not to participate in the Miami Open. Although it’s likely he will adopt the same strategy this year, he may alter his schedule to pursue the 1000 points up for grabs in that tournament.
Currently ranked No 7 in the ATP Rankings, a win at Indian Wells could catapult Djokovic back into the top four. If he manages to bag more points in Miami, his position in the top four could be solidified as the European clay court season begins, providing him with more opportunities to accumulate ranking points ahead of the French Open.
While Djokovic isn’t actively chasing ranking points, a return to the top four ahead of the French Open could work in his favor. It would help him avoid early encounters with Carlos Alcaraz, the reigning Roland Garros champion, world No 2 Alexander Zverev, and world No 1 Jannik Sinner until the Paris semi-finals.
The consequences of Djokovic’s fall from the top four were evident at the Australian Open, where a strenuous match against Alcaraz in the quarter-finals led to his subsequent withdrawal against Zverev.
“Older players often struggle to find a balance between preserving their body and playing enough matches,” observed Pat Cash, former Wimbledon champion, in an exclusive interview with Tennis365. He emphasized the importance of being match-tough, especially in best-of-five-set Grand Slam tournaments, and the potential ramifications of a grueling early match.
With just 600 ranking points to defend from 2024, Djokovic could substantially boost his chances of being among the top four seeds at Roland Garros by adding up to 1,500 ranking points to his total ahead of the French Open. In 2025, Djokovic has set his sights squarely on his 25th Grand Slam title, and a surge in ATP Rankings in March would undoubtedly aid him in achieving this goal.