Kremlin in Chaos as Assad Regime Collapses, Putin’s Grip on Power at Risk
The Kremlin is in turmoil as the once-mighty Assad regime crumbles, leaving Russian President Vladimir Putin grappling with the unsettling possibility of a similar fate. The dramatic downfall of Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Moscow, has not only dealt a severe blow to Putin’s strategic alliances but has also plunged the Kremlin into a crisis of unprecedented proportions. This shocking turn of events has thrust Putin into a state of anxious uncertainty, fearing the reverberations of Assad’s downfall on his own grip on power.
“The rapid collapse of the Assad regime in Syria – a regime that the Kremlin helped prop up since 2015 – is a strategic political defeat for Moscow and has thrown the Kremlin into a crisis as it seeks to retain its strategic military basing in Syria,” emphasized the Institute for the Study of War’s Russian Campaign Assessment report.
Putin’s Strategic Setback
The loss of Assad as a key ally represents a significant geopolitical setback for Putin, jeopardizing Russia’s influence in the Middle East, cultivated through years of military interventions and economic support for the Syrian regime. The report highlighted Putin’s concerns over popular uprisings, drawing parallels between the events in Syria and potential threats to his own regime’s stability. Putin’s discomfort with democratic movements aiming to oust authoritarian leaders aligned with the Kremlin underscores his broader resistance to challenges against his envisioned multipolar world order.
Moreover, the report shed light on Russia’s efforts to secure its military bases in Syria amidst the chaotic aftermath of Assad’s departure. While an agreement was reached with Syrian opposition leaders to safeguard these bases, the longevity of such a deal remains uncertain given the volatile situation. The potential loss of Russian military footholds in Syria could have far-reaching implications, affecting Russia’s global military presence and its ability to project power, particularly in regions like Africa.
Public Outcry and Military Criticism
The collapse of the Assad regime has triggered outrage among Russian military bloggers and commentators, who view it as a humiliating foreign policy failure and a missed opportunity to maintain influence in strategically vital areas. Criticism has been directed at the Kremlin for its failure to gauge the deteriorating military capabilities of Assad’s forces and the resurgence of opposition groups in Syria. The dissatisfaction among milbloggers underscores the broader sentiment of disappointment and frustration within Russia’s military circles over the handling of the Syrian conflict.
“The impact on Russia’s global image is now entirely dependent on the outcome of its war in Ukraine, which is more important to Russia than anything now,” lamented a Kremlin-affiliated milblogger, reflecting the deep-seated concerns within Russia over the implications of Assad’s downfall. As Russian ultranationalists express dismay over the loss of a strategic ally and the potential erosion of Russia’s global standing, the Kremlin faces mounting pressure to recalibrate its foreign policy approach to navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape.
