In a stark escalation of its nearly three-year invasion, Russia expanded its control over Ukrainian territory by nearly 4,000 square kilometers (1,500 square miles) in 2024—a staggering seven-fold increase compared to the previous year, according to an AFP analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War.
This dramatic surge, fueled by intensified offensives in the fall, underscores the mounting pressure on Ukraine as it enters a pivotal 2025. Uncertainty over future U.S. military aid under an incoming Trump presidency has further deepened Kyiv’s challenges.
Russia’s Tactical Gains
October and November were particularly devastating months for Ukraine, with Russian forces capturing 610 square kilometers and 725 square kilometers, respectively—their largest territorial advances since the war’s early weeks in 2022. Although the advance slowed to 465 square kilometers in December, this figure still dwarfs gains from the same period in the previous two years.
The Kremlin’s renewed momentum highlights Moscow’s commitment to pouring resources into its campaign, despite facing international sanctions and condemnation.
U.S. Aid at a Crossroads
In its final weeks, the Biden administration unveiled a $6 billion aid package for Ukraine, aiming to shore up Kyiv’s defenses before President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January. Trump has repeatedly claimed he could end the conflict within “24 hours,” sparking fears that a peace deal could compel Ukraine to cede occupied territories to Russia.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed concerns over Washington’s shifting leadership, emphasizing the importance of U.S. support. While Zelensky has sought to establish dialogue with Trump’s team, apprehension remains high among Ukrainians over the potential impact on military and humanitarian aid.
Missiles, Drones, and Retaliation
The conflict’s relentless violence continued through the New Year. Russia launched overnight missile and drone strikes targeting Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure, including in the Kyiv region, where a woman was injured by falling debris. Moscow claimed to have struck a military airfield and munitions facility, while Ukrainian forces retaliated with a drone attack on an oil depot in western Russia.
President Vladimir Putin, in his New Year’s Eve address, refrained from directly referencing the war but hailed Russian soldiers as “true heroes” defending their country. Meanwhile, Defense Minister Andrei Belousov invoked the Kremlin’s discredited justification of fighting “Nazism” as he paid tribute to fallen troops.
Ukraine’s Hope for Peace
Amid escalating violence and territorial losses, Ukrainians remain steadfast in their hope for victory and lasting peace. “I want peace to finally be obtained for Ukraine, for people to stop dying, for all our soldiers to return home,” said Kateryna Chemeryz, a Kyiv teacher.
While Trump’s upcoming presidency adds uncertainty, many Ukrainians are resolute in their determination to chart their own destiny. “Ukraine should work to determine its own fate without Trump or anyone else,” said Tetiana, a civil servant.
What Lies Ahead?
As Russia fortifies its grip on captured territories and Ukraine braces for an uncertain future under shifting international dynamics, 2025 could be a defining year for both nations. With U.S. support potentially in flux and Moscow’s ambitions undeterred, the path to peace remains fraught with challenges.
