Projections, in MLB, are taken very seriously by those who make them and, of course, by the media and fans.
They always give people a topic to talk about.
Some people will believe X team is being slept on in projections; and some models are just too optimistic about Y team in many cases.
The New York Yankees were the center of controversy, not because of something they did, but because of some recent projections of their upcoming season.
“PECOTA has the Yankees at 92.7 wins. Baseball-Reference has them at 71.6. Can’t both be right!”, Yankees insider Bryan Hoch tweeted.
PECOTA has the Yankees at 92.7 wins. Baseball-Reference has them at 71.6. Can’t both be right! https://t.co/Mry47Z67J0
— Bryan Hoch (@BryanHoch) March 26, 2024
The PECOTA projection seems reasonable, if you analyze the facts.
The Yankees play in one of the toughest divisions in baseball, so getting to 100 or even 95 wins could be challenging.
With 92 victories, however, they should make it to the postseason, and a whole new tournament will begin there.
The one that seems incredibly off-target is the Baseball-Reference one.
Baseball-Reference has long been one of the leading sources of information and baseball-related data for media and fans alike.
Their system, however, hates the Yankees.
Everything can happen in baseball, but the Yankees should finish second or third, and even have a shot at taking the AL East.
Even at their worst, which happened last year, they managed to win 82 games.
That included injuries to Aaron Judge, Nestor Cortes, Carlos Rodon, Anthony Rizzo, and many relievers, not to mention a career-worst season from Giancarlo Stanton.
There truly has to be a catastrophic turn of events for them to win just 71 games.
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